{"comments":{"933487":{"pb_id":"42418","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"933487","comment_id":"933487","member_id":"42418","comment":"Outstanding job, Rob! Really appreciate all of the time and care you put into this and that the NXN order of finish isn't the sole determinant. Also really appreciate the thorough responses you give to people who ask.","date_added":"Dec 12th 2013, 6:04pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198423,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-42418.jpeg","pb_title":"SteveU","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=42418","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/SteveU.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1030740"},"933367":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"933367","comment_id":"933367","member_id":"45158","comment":"Ahhh, knowing it was CdA's #1 makes it more understandable how CdA remained ranked so high. And you're right, NXR is an equal opportunity meet: your rankings can soar or plummet due to NXR performance. I guess a part of me dislikes that lol. While I love NXN, I suppose I am a purist and feel state championships are more important. '12 Central Valley was good enough to be a top 40 team who peaked at state in order to win state and had nothing left at NXR. '13 Kamiakin when on was special, like top 15 special if not better (East Regionals, State, Sunfair Inv) but had a bad NXR.","date_added":"Dec 12th 2013, 9:04am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198423,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"933364":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"933364","comment_id":"933364","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>DontStopPre, on , said:<\/p>

\nWatchout, I appreciate your response regarding CDA. For the most par tthe response was what I expected ... I trust your numbers and your system and your work. Like ESPN says "Numbers Don't Lie". Still if I was Bellermine Prep or Camas and beat CDA at NXR yet was ranked below them in a ranking that weighs heavily to NXR I might be a bit irked. Which CDA girl was held out? Was it a top 3 girl? How many times would you say CDA beats
\nthose 2 WA teams out of 10? Are those 3 teams
\nclose or would CDA beat them 8 out of 10 times?<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nIt was their #1 girl at their state meet, and I'd say their #2 for the season (she was their #1 all year, but at NXN-NW their top finisher had the best race for the team all year).
\n
\nWith the injured girl included as she ran at state, and the rest of the season? I'd say CdA wins probably 9 times out of 10. They had better front runners than Bellarmine Prep (most days they would probably have had 3 in before BP's #1) and had better depth than Camas (their #5 was better than Camas' #4). Even with their missing runner, they were neck and neck with Camas losing 167-179, and that's with their normal #6 scoring 76 points for them.
\n
\n
\n

<\/a>DontStopPre, on , said:<\/p>

Regarding Kamiakin and Hale, I THINK you misunderstood me. I was saying I thought it was correct that they didn't drop very far. They are good teams that just didn't do enough to qualify out of a tough NW region. I TRULY believe had Kamiakin ran as well as they did at State they would've got 3rd at NW. I truly believe they are a top 15 team. BUT they ran "poor" at NXR.
\n
\nActually my point regarding teams from past years who dropped completely out of rankings after a good state but a bad NXR are examplified by '12 Hale and '12 Seattle Prep and '12 Central Valley. All 3 (if I remember right) ran very well at state but
\nvery poor at NXR. All 3 dropped out of national rankings (Idk if you had rankings that deep, 40ish, or they were regional rankings ... but my point is that a poor NXR hurt them, but of course the circumstances weren't identical to '13 CDA.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nAh, yes, I did misunderstand (just saw the questions about CdA in the same paragraph as mentioning Kamiakin and Hale and replied as if you were asking "why did they move back a bit, while CdA didn't move back at all?") Lots of teams drop after poor NXR results, even after they run well at State. Of course, lots of teams rise in the rankings after good NXR results, too. :)","date_added":"Dec 12th 2013, 8:39am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198423,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"933363":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"933363","comment_id":"933363","member_id":"45158","comment":"Watchout, I appreciate your response regarding CDA. For the most par tthe response was what I expected ... I trust your numbers and your system and your work. Like ESPN says "Numbers Don't Lie". Still if I was Bellermine Prep or Camas and beat CDA at NXR yet was ranked below them in a ranking that weighs heavily to NXR I might be a bit irked. Which CDA girl was held out? Was it a top 3 girl? How many times would you say CDA beats
\nthose 2 WA teams out of 10? Are those 3 teams
\nclose or would CDA beat them 8 out of 10 times?
\n
\n
\nRegarding Kamiakin and Hale, I THINK you misunderstood me. I was saying I thought it was correct that they didn't drop very far. They are good teams that just didn't do enough to qualify out of a tough NW region. I TRULY believe had Kamiakin ran as well as they did at State they would've got 3rd at NW. I truly believe they are a top 15 team. BUT they ran "poor" at NXR.
\n
\nActually my point regarding teams from past years who dropped completely out of rankings after a good state but a bad NXR are examplified by '12 Hale and '12 Seattle Prep and '12 Central Valley. All 3 (if I remember right) ran very well at state but
\nvery poor at NXR. All 3 dropped out of national rankings (Idk if you had rankings that deep, 40ish, or they were regional rankings ... but my point is that a poor NXR hurt them, but of course the circumstances weren't identical to '13 CDA.","date_added":"Dec 12th 2013, 8:25am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198423,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"933358":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"933358","comment_id":"933358","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>DontStopPre, on , said:<\/p>

\nHow did Coeur d' Alene move up to 15th when they didn't even get to NXN (finished 4th at NXN NW)? Two of the teams that beat them at NXN NW finished ranked at 32nd and 38th. Bozeman did well at both NXN events and are just 4 spots better at 11th. CDA is a fine program but I thought the rankings were weighted to state, NXN regionals, and NXN (with each meet more important than
\nlast). Through the years I have seen teams who win or race well at state get ranked only to fall out of rankings with mediocre or subpar NXN regional races. This year Kamiakin and Nathan Hale atleast remained in the rankings where (I believe) they belong (especially Kaniakin, more than Hale). But those 2 teams dropped (understandably) while
\nCDA actually moved up rankings despite missing NXN.
\n
\nI assume the numbers will justify the rankings (ie an entire solid season isn't wiped out by a subpar NXN regional, which for the most part I agree with). However like I said I've seen poor NXN regional performances unrank teams in the past.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nYou might be forgetting that the last update to this was two weeks ago (before NXN-NE, NXN-NY, NXN-SE and the California State meet).
\n
\nCoeur d'Alene moved up one spot, passing one team: Buchanan CA, who ran poorly (compared to previous races) at the California State meet.
\n
\nYes, the rankings are weighted towards State, NXR and NXN - but Coeur d'Alene (just like all the other teams) didn't get penalized for not qualifying for NXN, and didn't get penalized for holding out an injured runner at NXR since she ran at their State meet (just like Northville MI girls in the Midwest, as well as a few other cases).
\n
\nAs for the NW boys teams that didn't qualify... NW#3 Central Catholic finished 19th at NXN<\/span>. Unless I had good reason to rank them ahead of teams they beat (and I didn't), that means they should be ranked behind 18 other teams that competed at NXN. The only team with a good reason for moving up beyond their NXN finish was Hinsdale Central (they had a runner - their #1 - involved in the pileup that had to drop out of the race - same line of reasoning for the Coe-Brown girls staying ahead of some teams that beat them at NXN, as they were without their #3). With Central Catholic's ceiling at #19 of the teams that were at NXN, that pushes all the non-qualifying NW teams back behind them - making them lose a few spots, although some of those spots they had lost the week before at the NXN-SE and NXN-NY meet.
\n
\nRecap of teams that passed Nathan Hale and Kamiakin -
\n
\nTeams that passed Nathan Hale:
\n
\nEdina MN, who finished 10th at NXN
\nWC Henderson PA, who finished second at NXN-NE and 12th at NXN
\nSeverna Park MD, who was second at NXN-SE and 13th at NXN
\nSouthlake Carroll TX, who finished 14th at NXN
\nWayzata MN, who finished 15th at NXN
\nDavis UT, who finished 17th at NXN
\n
\nTeams that passed Kamiakin:
\n
\nEdina MN, who finished 10th at NXN
\nWC Henderson PA, who finished second at NXN-NE and 12th at NXN
\nSeverna Park MD, who was second at NXN-SE and 13th at NXN
\nSouthlake Carroll TX, who finished 14th at NXN
\nWayzata MN, who finished 15th at NXN
\nDavis UT, who finished 17th at NXN
\nSt. Anthony's NY, who finished fourth at NXN-NY
\nRidgefield CT, who finished third at NXN-NE
\nMidlothian VA, who finished fourth at NXN-SE","date_added":"Dec 12th 2013, 7:47am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198423,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"933357":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"933357","comment_id":"933357","member_id":"45158","comment":"How did Coeur d' Alene move up to 15th when they didn't even get to NXN (finished 4th at NXN NW)? Two of the teams that beat them at NXN NW finished ranked at 32nd and 38th. Bozeman did well at both NXN events and are just 4 spots better at 11th. CDA is a fine program but I thought the rankings were weighted to state, NXN regionals, and NXN (with each meet more important than
\nlast). Through the years I have seen teams who win or race well at state get ranked only to fall out of rankings with mediocre or subpar NXN regional races. This year Kamiakin and Nathan Hale atleast remained in the rankings where (I believe) they belong (especially Kaniakin, more than Hale). But those 2 teams dropped (understandably) while
\nCDA actually moved up rankings despite missing NXN.
\n
\nI assume the numbers will justify the rankings (ie an entire solid season isn't wiped out by a subpar NXN regional, which for the most part I agree with). However like I said I've seen poor NXN regional performances unrank teams in the past.","date_added":"Dec 12th 2013, 7:13am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":198423,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"}},"last_id":"933357","url":"comments.php?item_type=news&item_id=198423&item_url=gprofile.php?mgroup_id=89"}